5 Comments
User's avatar
Bill's avatar

So it appears that 7 people may have died with Covid-19 and possibly from Covid-19 and that the other deaths should not be considered as relevant?

Expand full comment
Deep Dive's avatar

That's a valid and sound way to interpret the findings, Bill.

Expand full comment
Bill's avatar

Thanks!

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment removed
Feb 5, 2024
Comment removed
Expand full comment
Deep Dive's avatar

Actually, with a finite baseline number watched over time, the density curve of death would be roughly exponential -- though I do get your point.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment removed
Feb 5, 2024Edited
Comment removed
Expand full comment
Deep Dive's avatar

Great point.

Like prisoners, they were only allowed for a short time each day to leave their cabins/cells. As this time would most-likely be staggered (one-tenth of cabins can roam one hour, the next tenth of cabins the next hour, etc.), there would not be enough time for sunshine to make vitamin D.

Because active vitamin D has a half-life of 15 days, a 15-day quarantine has the potential to double the expected deaths from an illness.

p.s., you did not catch my "reasoning mistake" above (constant daily probability equates to exponential death), but I'm not going to hold it against you, because I know that you do your best and cannot be expected to catch every imperfection

:-)

Expand full comment