The prior report on this topic is here. Also, there was an error in the original, and it has now been corrected below.
Texas is known for having rainfall that reaches a rate of 2 inches of rain per hour, and — even without a tropic storm behind it — that rate of rainfall can be maintained for a few hours. Rainfall is typically worse in east Texas, moderate in central Texas, and lowest in west Texas. Ingram is just west of Kerrville, in central Texas:
[click to enlarge]
At far left is Hunt, at center is Ingram, and at bottom right is Kerrville — all located near the Guadalupe River which is running east-west (or west-east) in the middle of the image. At 3:30 a.m. on 4 July 2025, the Kerrville City Manager was jogging along the Guadalupe River when there was “not a drop of rain” yet:
But 4 hours later, the rain guage in Ingram had a reading of 9.40 inches:
Notice when the reading was taken (at 7:36 a.m.). Over the course of those 4 hours, this rain guage was registering an average of 2.35 inches per hour.
But, because the City Manager completed his jog at 4:00 a.m., and because he said that there was still only “very light rain” by then, then it can be deduced that, from 4:00 a.m. to 7:36 a.m., average rainfall was higher than 2.35 in./hr. It could be as high as 2.6 inches per hour, averaged over the course of 3.6 hours (from 4:00 a.m. to 7:36 a.m.).
The evidence suggests that rainfall in Ingram is not the result of natural phenomena because, in the absence of a tropic storm, it is not “normal” (even in Texas) to hold an average rate of rainfall of over 2.5 inches per hour for over 3.5 hours straight — especially in central Texas, where it is drier than it is in east Texas.
Reference
[central Texas map] — https://www.raindrop.farm/rainfall-totals/zipcode/78028
[central Texas flood timeline] — https://www.tpr.org/news/2025-07-05/heres-a-timeline-of-the-catastrophic-texas-floods
[central Texas rain guages] — https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/CountyDailyPrecipReports.aspx?state=TX&county=KR