Accounting for 5-month Delay

Post #1206

When observing upticks in deaths after COVID shots, prior evidence reveals you have to account for as much as a 5-month delay. The default delay worked into the MedAlerts searching tool only goes out to 120 days (4 months) though. But using “expert mode” lets you bypass that restriction.

The reporting rate of fatal adverse event reports (fatal AERs) per million doses was compared, using 20 different lots of Moderna versus 5 consecutive seasons of flu shots in adults (2015-2020). Here are how each of the Moderna lots compare to flu shots:

At far right is a Moderna “hot lot” — 039 K 20 A — where reports of fatality were very high. But even still, every individual rate for each lot was more than 200x higher than the fatal reporting rate for flu shots. Here are the notes:

The reporting rate of fatality for the “hot lot” shows up just left of the orange cell:

117.8 fatal AERs (by Day 180) per million doses given

That came from 123 reports from a lot with a total size of 1.0437 million doses. It was 727x when compared to the 5-year rate found for flu shots (green cell). Flu shots had 88 fatal AERs for 542.7 million doses. Moderna lots had 1,394 fatal AERs for 25.3 million doses in total — averaging at 340x greater than the reporting rate for flu shots.

Reference

[ICAN page with a link to the 17Mb PDF file showing Moderna lot sizes] — https://icandecide.org/article/exclusive-moderna-lot-and-dose-data-release/

[age distribution of those receiving flu shots in 2010-2020] — https://www.cdc.gov/fluvaxview/coverage-by-season/vaccination-2019-2020.html

[narrow-band age groups by year] — https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-five-year-age-group

[MedAlerts VAERS searching tool] — MedAlerts. https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php