An Unlucky 7

Post #515

In a previous installment, the actual count of ICU admissions in the placebo group during a phase III trial (which had been published on 10 Dec 2020) got compared to ICU admission rates after COVID jabs rolled out.

Being born in a nation is based on the luck of the draw. Here, 7 “unlucky” nations, with very high ICU admissions after COVID jabs rolled out, are compared to that original baseline from that first large phase III trial:

The bottom orange line is the central estimate for average weekly ICU admissions per million (14.4), based on three ICU admissions in the placebo group after 4,006 person-years of observation. The horizontal red line above that is the 90% upper bound of that estimate (37.2).

Latvia did the worst, showing two consecutive stretches — each more than 6 months long — above the 90% upper bound of the baseline ICU admission rate for COVID. Most disturbingly, Latvia also had a week that was 15 times higher than the baseline ICU admission rate for COVID (and 6 times higher than the 90% upper bound).

Next worst was Chile, with 4 consecutive months above the 90% upper bound.

All 7 nations exceeded the 90% upper bound for multiple (“many”) consecutive weeks, though data were sparse for Lithuania, with available data showing only two consecutive weeks above (and with only indirect indication that there were actually more consecutive weeks above it).

In these 7 regions, evidence suggests that the COVID jabs increased the risk of ICU admission beyond the risk which had been faced in 2020 (i.e., beyond bottom orange line).

Reference

[weekly ICU admissions per million] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-icu-admissions-covid-per-million

[in 4,006 person-years of observation time in the placebo group, 3 were sent to ICU] — FDA document. https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download