COVID Cost:Benefit of Vitamin D

Post #534

Vitamin D does a lot of good things for your body. But recently, it’s ability to ward off acute respiratory disease, such as COVID, has been in the spotlight.

A meta-analysis of 7 randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) — all of which had used frequent dosing (rather than just a huge, single bolus dose) — found it to be 58% effective against severe COVID, as measured by the proportion of ICU admisssions.

Example: If groups were equally-sized, and if 100 people in the control group were admitted to ICU, then only 42 people in the Vitamin D group would be (a 58% reduction).

That value can be called a Nutrient Efficacy (NE) value, to keep in line with the “vaccine efficacy” (VE) reported for jabs. It shows that vitamin D is more effective against severe COVID than are the mRNA jabs. But what about the cost?

How do the costs compare?

It was recently reported that Moderna is going to charge $129 per dose going forward. Ignoring the harm from Moderna jabs — and just focusing on the cost:benefit for just COVID alone — it costs $42 million to save a single life with Moderna shots.

But vitamin D saves twice as many lives as Moderna, and it does so at one-seventeenth (1/17th) the cost:

[click to enlarge]

The citation in cell A2 at top-left provides the rational basis for using twice your personal income as a measure of cost-effectiveness of medical treatments in terms of cost per life-year saved.

But median personal income in the USA is only $37,000 — so treatments which cost more than $74,000 per life-year saved would not be considered to be cost-effective ones, at least for one-half of America.

Cell A8 references a study that found the average life-years remaining from a COVID death were 11.7 years remaining (saving a life means saving 11.7 years of life).

Even in those over age 60, Moderna costs $1.3 million per life-year saved (and $42 million per life-year saved, overall). In contrast, there was cost-effectiveness of vitamin D in those over age 60.

A person can protect themselves with vitamin D for less than $30 a year.

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Assumptions in the cost:benefit comparison
—Sale price for vitamin D would be the price (if government made a contract to buy it)
—Yearly attack rate for COVID variants set to 25%
—Infection fatality rate set at the upper 95% limit of the Danish study (cell A6)
—Vitamin D “nutrient effectivess” set to 58%
—Moderna “vaccine effectiveness” set to 30%

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Reference

[7 RCTs reveal that vitamin D in repeat-dose schedules (rather than bolus dosing) cuts ICU admissions by 58%] — Meng J, Li X, Liu W, Xiao Y, Tang H, Wu Y, Xiong Y, Gao S. The role of vitamin D in the prevention and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Clin Nutr. 2023 Nov;42(11):2198-2206. doi: 10.1016/j.clnu.2023.09.008. Epub 2023 Sep 20. PMID: 37802017. https://www.clinicalnutritionjournal.com/article/S0261-5614(23)00296-0/fulltext

[Moderna is set to charge $129 per dose] — COVID vaccine manufacturers set list price between $120-$130 per dose. Reuters. September 12, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-vaccine-manufacturers-set-list-price-between-120-130-per-dose-2023-09-12/