By the end of March 2020, it was known that COVID wasn’t much worse than flu. This is because of a “natural experiment” regarding an outbreak of COVID on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. I’ve dealt elsewhere with the estimated total Diamond Princess deaths, and my estimate produces an elderly IFR for COVID of 1.53%:
At top right is a “What-If?” analysis regarding a hypothetical outbreak of flu on the Diamond Princess, where half of everyone aboard was elderly. Five flu deaths would have been expected to occur if flu had attacked the ship instead of COVID.
With COVID, 7 deaths occurred (40% above what would be expected with flu).
To put an elderly IFR of 1.5% into even more perspective, after correcting symptomatic cases to total flu infections, the 2013-14 flu had an elderly IFR of 1.4%:
In other words, it was known before April 2020 that COVID was not anywhere near being 10 times worse than the flu. For the elderly, COVID was only 7% more lethal than the flu of 2013-14.
The DP clearly showed there wasn't any serious danger in early 20. Of course "they" spun it 180. Proof the whole thing was a predetermined fraud.
Excellent work. Thank you for this article. It is very clear and straight forward.