Disproportionality Signal in Age 50-59
Post #1153
NOTE: This post updates and corrects a prior analysis here.
Using a safety-monitoring method of disproportionality analysis for signal detection — called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) — a strong signal comes from the proportion of all adverse event reports (AERs) for COVID shots which turned out to be fatal. CDC has complained about this method, due to variability in estimates.
But the approved method to account for variability is to form confidence limits. Here is an example analysis, on the age band of 50 to 59, performed with those confidence limits and therefore relying on the 5th percentile value of PRR, sometimes called PRR_05, to show that a strong signal for fatality truly does exist:
In cell AO 3, the 1,810 fatal AERs for COVID shots given in 2021 shows up. Just to the right is the count of all AERs for COVID shots in 2021 which did not result in a fatality. The next row shows the sum of all fatal AERs for all shots given from 2010-2019 inclusive. There were only 52 of them. To the right are the nonfatal AERs.
In cell AO 13 is the Chi-squared statistic. CDC requires it to be 4 or more. At 264.05, that requirement is met. In cell AS 8 is the point estimate of the PRR. It is a ratio of the proportion of all AERs which were fatal, dividing the proportion derived for COVID shots by the proportion derived from 2010-2019 shots.
At 7.03, the PRR is throwing off a Safety Signal. After computing the lower bound of a 90% confidence interval on it, you get PRR_05, sitting in the orange cell — still throwing the signal. The CDC requires the PRR to be over 2.0, and even the PRR_05 is above that (at 5.58).
Statistically-valid disproportionality analysis on fatality in AERs reveals that COVID shot reports disproportionately had a higher proportion of death when compared with all other kinds of vaccines that people in the age band of 50-59 had taken during the years from 2010 to 2019. The proper thing to do now is to perform follow-up research.
Will CDC engage in that follow-up research?
Fatal AERs by year of dose
Note that 25 of the fatal AERs in 2021 were for shots other than COVID shots.
All AERs by year of dose
Note that the true number of COVID shot AERs for 2021 was 157,803. In this age band, reports citing COVID shots comprised 97% of all AERs that year.