Early-onset Disability Disproportionality
Post #1161
NOTE: This report is an update to the prior report found here.
CDC uses the Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) to detect disproportionate amounts of reports coming in for a given adverse event in VAERS. But FDA goes at least one step beyond CDC, because, when it data mines, it uses the 5th Percentile value of a disproportionality statistic. Using the 5th Percentile reduces the false alarms you get.
When using only those adverse event reports (AERs) which relate to disability in less than 5 days after receiving an injection, there is a very high chance that the reports are legitimate and causal — because there is a very low chance to “coincidentally” witness the adverse event (becoming disabled) so close to the injection day.
Using the age band of 30-39, and using the 2010-2019 baseline values for “disabled by Day 4 post-injection” — the COVID shots given in 2022 threw a Safety Signal. By adding the additional safeguard that FDA uses to the method that CDC uses, you find out that, even after accounting for variability in the estimate, the signal was robust:
The yellow cell shows the Chi-squared statistic and CDC requires it to be 4 or more. At 289, we are well beyond that and well into “Safety Signal Territory.” The CDC requires the central estimate of the PRR to be 2 or more. With 4.05% of COVID shot AERs comprised of disability by Day 4, but just 1.22% for other shots, PRR = 3.33.
Note that when rounded to just two decimal places like above, then the PRR works out to 3.32, but when using unrounded values on top and bottom, the real PRR = 3.33.
After accounting for variability in the estimate by using FDA’s method of reporting the 5th percentile value of the disproportionality statistic, that PRR_05 shows up in the orange cell and, at 2.94, it is still throwing off a Safety Signal.
By simultaneously accounting for estimate variability and also for temporality (using reports with disability onset very close to the day of injection), very strong evidence suggests that there was extra harm from COVID shots when compared to the typical harm from usual shots.
Here is an example of a search result used in order to obtain the 618 reports of disability by Day 4 for COVID shots administered in 2022 to the age band of 30-39 (for the value in the 3rd row of column AK in the spreadsheet above):
Reference
[online search tool for VAERS database] — https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php