In this prior post, the measles case fatality rate (CFR) of the Euro area from 2024 was compared to questionable estimates that come from places like the World Health Organization and by universities — which both say that up to 3 deaths occur for each thousand measles cases. Comparing data vs claim, here is what it looks like:
[click image to enlarge]
The blue curve represents the likely CFR values for measles, given the known situation that happened in 2024 in the Euro area (38 deaths from 127,250 cases). The dotted line far off to the right represents the claim that measles is a type of thing which is capable of killing 3 people in a thousand.
To verify if that claim is “far removed from reality” the curve generated by the data was analyzed in order to find the [99.95]th Percentile value of measles CFR. That represents the upper bound of a 99.9% uncertainty interval. It worked out to a CFR of 0.048%, much lower than the 0.3% claimed by WHO and the universities.
When checked against the “verbal predicates” that got used in prior court cases involving paternity testing, it turns out that it is more than “extremely likely” that the WHO and the universities (at least in Minnesota and Chicago) are speaking untruth:
Using the table of verbal predicates, one would say that, because the upper bound of a 99.9% uncertainty interval does not include the claim of “0.3% CFR” — then that means that it has been “practically proven” to be wrong, and can be ruled out. Another way to say this is that their claim is “far removed from reality.”
Measles is not a disease which causes 3 of every thousand cases to die (a disease with a CFR of 0.3%). People who tell you it is, are speaking an untruth.
Reference
[verbal predicates that coincide with paternity test probabilities] — https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2024&context=lawreview