Fatal AERs within 4 months
Post #1198
Two criticisms of using adverse event reports (AERs) to VAERS in order to compare COVID shots to flu shots are that the reports have not been adjudicated by medical professionals in order to determine causation, and that the groups are not comparable (COVID shot recipients are, on average, a little older than flu shot recipients).
To address both criticisms, a shortened time window was applied to fatal AERs for 15 Moderna lots (onset must be within 120 days) and applied again to flu shots for the last 10 flu seasons leading up to COVID. Though only a part of the expected difference in fatal AER report is age-based, I will use a “full-correction” with age.
This “over-correction” based on the mean age of COVID shot recipient vs. the mean age of flu shot recipient makes the process more conservative, so that the estimated disparity between reporting rates will be a minimum estimate (it will show a best-case scenario for Moderna). Here are the Moderna lots:
And the flu shot seasons:
And to correct for differences in age, here are ages of the people who had taken at least one COVID shot by 30 Apr 2021:
Proportion single-dosed by 30 Apr 2021 (PMC8570444)
Age ….. Proportion … (%)
16-17 ….… 0.028 ….... (2.8%)
18-29 ….... 0.342 …... (34.2%)
30-39 ….... 0.436 …… (43.6%)
40-49 ….… 0.503 …… (50.3%)
50-64 ..….. 0.624 …… (62.4%)
65-74 ….… 0.836 …... (83.6%)
75+ ….….... 0.813 …... (81.3%)
And here are their population counts from 2019:
Population in each age band (NVSR, 2019)
Age …... Population
16-17 …. 8,421,828
18-29 .… 53,563,784
30-39 .… 44,168,826
40-49 .… 40,319,374
50-64 …. 62,925,688
65-74 .… 31,483,433
75+ ….... 22,574,830Total .… 263,457,763
And for the purpose of finding the weighted mean age of COVID shot recipient, we want the top age category (75+) to have a correct average. This can be accomplished by moving the very top number around until you find a midpoint value that matches it. Here is the average age of Americans who are 75+:
Mean age for those 75 and up (U.S. Census, 2020)
Age ….... Midpoint ….... Population (M) …… Midpoint*(M)
75-84 …...... 79.5 ……..…......….. 16.3 ……………….. 1,295.85
85-94 …...... 89.5 …………..…....…. 5.7 …………...…….. 510.15
95-104 ….... 99.5 …………..…....…. 0.6 ………………….…… 59.7Total ……………………….….…..…… 22.6 ………….…...… 1,865.7
Weighted mean age of 75+ age band = [1,865.7 / 22.6] = 82.55
With an average of 82.5, we can now find the mean age of a COVID shot recipient:
Mean age for recipients of COVID shots by 30 Apr 2021
Age …... Proportion … Population …. Prop * Pop (PP) …. Midpoint … Midpoint*(PP)
16-17 ..…..… 0.028 ……..... 8,421,828 ……..…..… 235,811 ………….. 16.5 …….….… 3,890,885
18-29 …..….. 0.342 …...... 53,563,784 …….… 18,318,814 ………….. 23.5 …....… 430,492,132
30-39 …….... 0.436 …...… 44,168,826 …….… 19,257,608 ………….. 34.5 ….….… 664,387,481
40-49 …….… 0.503 ..……. 40,319,374 ……..… 20,280,645 ………….. 44.5 ……..… 902,488,708
50-64 .…...... 0.624 …...… 62,925,688 …….… 39,265,629 ………….. 57.0 …..… 2,238,140,871
65-74 …....… 0.836 ……... 31,483,433 ……..… 26,320,150 ………….. 69.5 …..… 1,829,250,424
75-90 …...... 0.813 ……... 22,574,830 ….….… 18,353,337 ………….. 82.5 …...… 1,514,150,285Total ……………………………………………….…….… 142,031,995 ……………………..……. 7,582,800,785
Weighted mean age of single-dosed American = [7,582,800,785 / 142,031,995] = 53.4
Note how setting the top age to 90 resulted in a midpoint age for the top age group with exactly the mean age for all people over age 74 (82.5). With an average age of 53.4 for COVID shot recipients, we can round down to 53 and compare it to the flu shot age:
Mean age for recipients of flu shots in 2019/20 season (CDC)
Age ….. Proportion … Population …. Prop * Pop (PP) …. Midpoint … Midpoint*(PP)
0.5-4 …….... 0.752 ……... 17,685,157 .….…..13,299,238 ……….…... 2.25 ……....…. 29,923,286
5-12 …..…... 0.645 ……... 30,595,029 …...… 19,733,794 ………..…... 8.5 ……...…. 167,737,246
13-17 ……... 0.533 .….…. 20,926,419 …...… 11,153,781 …….…..... 15.0 ….....…. 167,306,720
18-49 …..…. 0.384 ….… 138,051,984 ……… 53,011,962 ………..….. 33.5 …...... 1,775,900,722
50-64 .…..... 0.506 ……… 62,925,688 ….….. 31,840,398 ……..….... 57.0 …….… 1,814,902,693
65-86 ….….. 0.698 ……... 54,058,263 …...… 37,732,668 ………...... 75.5 …..…… 2,848,816,402Total …………………………………………………..… 166,771,841 ………..……………..……. 6,804,587,069
Weighted mean age of flu shot recipient = [6,804,587,069 / 166,771,841] = 40.8
With a mean age for flu shot recipients of 40.8, we can round it up to 41. Then we find the risk difference between age groups, in order to make fatal AERs for COVID shots comparable to those for flu shots:
The second column from the left is for males, and age 53 males have a risk of death of just under 2.2x the rate of 41 year-olds. For females (third column in from the right), it is just over 2.2x — averaging out to 2.2x for both sexes combined. This allows for correcting the fatal AER reporting rate for flu shots, comparing apples-to-apples:
After adjusting the reporting rate of fatal AERs for flu shots up by a factor of 2.2x, the final result is that the 15 Moderna lots had a reporting rate for fatal AERs which was 125x the reporting rate for flu shots. Here is the sensitivity analysis comparing single lots or years to the average of the other group:
Moderna lot 039 K 20 A was a “hot lot” in that the 4-month fatal AER reporting rate for it was 116 fatal AERs per million doses. It contained 1.0437 million doses, and led to 121 fatal AERs with an Onset Interval up to 120 days. Here are each of the individual flu seasons compared to the 15-lot average from Moderna:
Conclusion:
After adjusting for baseline risk of death, these Moderna lots were found to come with a 125x higher risk of reported fatality — when compared against flu shots. The evidence suggests that COVID shots should be pulled from the market for safety concerns.
NOTE: The previous report on this topic is here.
Reference
[ICAN page with a link to the 17Mb PDF file showing Moderna lot sizes] — https://icandecide.org/article/exclusive-moderna-lot-and-dose-data-release/
[seasonal uptake of flu shots] — CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/hcp/vaccine-supply/vaccine-supply-historical.html
[MedAlerts VAERS searching tool] — MedAlerts. https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
[age distribution of those receiving flu shots in 2019/20] — https://www.cdc.gov/fluvaxview/coverage-by-season/vaccination-2019-2020.html
[mean of age distribution of 75+ is 82.5] — https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/05/2020-census-united-states-older-population-grew.html
[Actuarial Life Table from Social Security Administration] — https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
[age distribution for COVID shots] — Pastorino R, Pezzullo AM, Villani L, Causio FA, Axfors C, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG, Boccia S, Ioannidis JPA. Change in age distribution of COVID-19 deaths with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination. Environ Res. 2022 Mar;204(Pt C):112342. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112342. Epub 2021 Nov 5. PMID: 34748775; PMCID: PMC8570444. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8570444/