NOTE: This post is a follow-up on a prior post citing 33 early-fatal VAERS reports from COVID shots which were given out on Wednesday, 30 December 2020.
Under the presumption that half of all reports submitted to VAERS are legitimate and would ultimately prove to be causally-related to the injection taken, I found out that going out by 9 days post-dose led to approximately half of the total fatal adverse event reports (AERs). While already trying to put the concepts in words, here is a picture:
Here are the total of 63 reports of death from this single day (30 Dec 2020) of COVID shot dosing:
And here are the 33 (52%) of those 63 total death reports which also had as their onset interval Day 0-to-Day 9:
Further research has revealed to me that this relationship broke down as the years rolled on, such that only 25%-to-28% of fatal AERs overall had onset intervals by Day 9. This still means that you could triple or quadruple the death reports up to Day 9, to get an estimate of the eventual total number of them.
From there, you can still cut that eventual total number in half to get a rough estimate of those reports which may ultimately end up being provably causal. Either way, the notion that over 1,000 deaths occurred from the 463,000 persons who got injected with COVID shots on Wednesday, 30 Dec 2020 is eye-popping.
If taken at face-value, it represents an estimated 2,160 people killed per million doses.
Example from the Literature regarding ‘probably causal’ passive reports:
In this prospective study of spontaneous reporting of adverse drug reactions (ADRs), follow-up analysis revealed that 51% of the reports were likely caused by the drug, just as had been reported.
Reference
[median capture rate of spontaneous reporting systems is 6% (a 94% under-reporting rate)] — Hazell L, Shakir SA. Under-reporting of adverse drug reactions : a systematic review. Drug Saf. 2006;29(5):385-96. doi: 10.2165/00002018-200629050-00003. PMID: 16689555. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16689555/
[half of the reports in a prospective study of spontaneous reporting were likely causal] — Sundaran S, Udayan A, Hareendranath K, Eliyas B, Ganesan B, Hassan A, Subash R, Palakkal V, Salahudeen MS. Study on the Classification, Causality, Preventability and Severity of Adverse Drug Reaction Using Spontaneous Reporting System in Hospitalized Patients. Pharmacy (Basel). 2018 Sep 29;6(4):108. doi: 10.3390/pharmacy6040108. PMID: 30274320; PMCID: PMC6306913. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30274320/