Jab Rate/Death Rate Hypothesis Test (part 1)

Post #695

On 29 Jan 2024, after witnessing data in 2 nations, a research hypothesis was formed regarding the proportion of nations that got their top rate of excess death after they reached a milestone of administering 40 COVID shots per 100 people over the previous 6 months. An acronym for “6-month COVID-shot uptake rate” is: 6M-CSUR.

Here is that hypothesis (emphasis added):

“Peak excess death in most nations will be found to occur after each nation passes a threshold 6M-CSUR of 40 doses per 100 people over the prior 6 months.”

An alpha level has been set to 0.01. Exclusion criteria are that a given nation must have both COVID shot administration data and weekly or monthly excess death data at the OurWorldInData online data repository for all of 2021 in order to be included in the study. Data capture begins in the first week of April 2020.

While the primary research question covers the proportion of nations reaching “maximum weekly or monthly excess death” after first reaching a 6M-CSUR value of “40 shots per 100 people over the prior 6 months" — a secondary objective using 60% of maximum was added after viewing the data for a more granular analysis as well.

Data on the first 19 nations has now been analyzed. Two nations so far have been excluded due to lack of data: Algeria and Belarus. The current tally of the per-nation test of excess death peaking after 6M-CSUR40 using Pass:Pass-at-60%:Fail is 8:3:6.

In other words, going up to ‘Bosnia and Herzegovina’ alphabetically, 8 of 17 got peak excess death after reaching 6M-CSUR40, and 3 of 17 got a peak at least 60% high as max after 6M-CSUR40, and 6 of 17 had their peak excess death prior to reaching 6M-CSUR40.

So far, the null hypothesis stating that half or less will be found to reach peak excess death before reaching 6M-CSUR40 has a good possibility of becoming rejected — indicating that high jab rates led to high death rates — though it is close enough to go either way (depending on the assignment of 60%max rates to either group).

The primary analysis would assign them all to the Fail group. Here are the notes so far (click to enlarge):

Orange dates include either the maximum excess death rate or a value greater than 60% of the maximum. Green cells indicate a nation that got their peak (top) excess death rate after first reaching 6M-CSUR40.

Red cells indicate a nation that got peak excess death prior to 6M-CSUR40 — even in the relaxed condition where “60% of peak” counted. Individual yellow cells indicate that a rate that was over 60% of the maximum rate followed reaching 6M-CSUR40.

Dates when nations hit 6M-CSUR40 are gray-shaded in column F, and maximum uptake rates (“6M-CSURmax”) as well as the date on which they occur, are in columns I and J. As mentioned in the prior post, Australia was notable for reaching their peak excess death rate when reaching their peak 6-month jab uptake (6M-CSURmax).

At the time when the highest amount of COVID shots had been administered (and it was a very high amount of COVID shots), Australia witnessed their highest-ever excess death rate.