When trying to explain the very high peaks in weekly excess death among nations, it might help to relate those death peaks to the peak uptake level of COVID shots. A testable hypothesis could be that the peak in “jab uptake of last 6 months” coincides with the peak in “weekly excess death.”
Or, more granular, you could say that having 100 doses per 100 people over the last 6 months leads to a peak in (or “very high”) excess death counts. Here is “peak excess death” for Australia:
And here is how it looks against the background of expected weekly death counts:
And here is where that week including 23 Jan 2022 maps to on the curve of “uptake over last 6 months” (in other words, a 6-month COVID shot uptake rate, or a “6M-CSUR”, for short):
Notice how it is that the peak 6-month uptake level coincides with peak excess death. Also of note is the high value of 140 COVID shots per 100 people over the previous 6 months.
To attempt to confirm the temporal relationship between “high jab uptake” and “high excess death” — here is “peak excess death” in Thailand:
And here is how it looks against the background of expected monthly death counts:
Thailand’s peak excess death came earlier than Australia’s did. But most important is where their death peak fits into the curve of “COVID shot uptake rate”:
For Thailand, peak weekly excess death did not coincide with peak 6M-CSUR (6-month COVID shot uptake rate). But Thailand may be representative of a boundary case, such that a new and testable hypothesis could be:
“Peak excess death in most nations will be found to occur after each nation passes a threshold 6M-CSUR of 40 doses per 100 people over the prior 6 months.”
Having a hypothesis to test (after witnessing just 2 outcomes), I will begin collecting data on it and will report back on this later.
Addendum: The first tranche of data has been collected and analyzed here.