NOTE: The two prior installments of this series are here and here.
Age-specific death rates naturally move around a little bit and also tend to fall over time as advances are made in human health. While slow and steady downward movement of rates is expected, sharp increases in death rates are alarming, and indicate that the environment has changed for the worse.
When a bad flu hits, a small uptick of age-specific death rates might be seen, but for most people, you will not find an uptick that is anywhere near a 3-standard deviation (3-sigma) shift. That’s because severe influenza isn’t lethal enough to cause it. In 35-year-olds, COVID wasn’t any more lethal than influenza, but look at recent years:
[1999-2019 was used as the baseline above]
From 1999 to 2019, there were several bad flu seasons, but no “3-sigma violations” — where the death rate rises to 3 standard deviations above its mean. The chance to “accidentally” rise 3 standard deviations above a mean are 1 in 741, which is far below a 1% chance (something not typical seen in 100 years of looking).
But the chance of witnessing three successive years of 3-sigma violations is (1/741 * 1/741 * 1/741 =) one chance in 406 million years. If humans had been alive for all of the 4.5 billion years that Earth has existed, three successive years of 3-sigma violations would have occurred “by accident” just 11 times in all of the history of the planet.
For those of age 30 to 39, the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID was similar to flu:
[click to enlarge]
Because flu is “just as lethal” to 35-year-olds as COVID is — and because flu cannot cause 3-sigma violations in age-specific death rates — then it indicates that something besides COVID is responsible for the three successive years of 3-sigma violations among the 35-year-olds. With 2021 as the peak, COVID shots look guilty.