VAED: Added to 'Cheap Trick' from Fenton/Neil
Edited to correct errors
Professors Norman Fenton and Martin Neil writeand they recently posted a video update of the ‘cheap trick’ of waiting 8 days or more after a dose before you consider someone inoculated. You can make a placebo look powerful that way.
But what if COVID shots are even worse than a placebo? What if they actively give you the disease that they claim to protect you from — so that if you wait long enough, you will have already had the disease, and will not get it a second time? When a “vaccine” enhances disease, it is called vaccine-associated enhanced disease (VAED).
Phase 1 Trial
On this view, the COVID shot doesn’t prevent symptomatic infections, but just pulls them forward in time (causes symptomatic infections). The Phase 1 trial showed that mRNA shots cause your lymphocytes to temporally drop by up to four quartiles (the new top/best value was the original bottom/worst value):
Panel (a), with the larger drop in lymphocytes, shows those of age 18-55. This indicates that COVID shots preferentially cut the immunity of the young, making them more susceptible to acute respiratory infections.
Panel (b) shows those of age 65-85, and their temporary drop is at least a two-quartile downward shift — i.e., new top value was old 50th Percentile value; new 75th Percentile value was old 25th Percentile value; new 50th Percentile value was old minimum value — which is also statistically significant.
Baseline COVID Disease Burden
The Phase 3 trial for Moderna counted up severe COVID cases and hospitalizations, providing a benchmark for the baseline COVID hospitalization rate in the placebo group. The baseline incidence rate of severe COVID before COVID shots was 4.072 per 1,000 person-years (per KPY):
The Moderna trial found that 21% of severe cases went on to be hospitalized, but even if 100% of cases did, the COVID hospitalization rate would still max out at 4.072 per KPY. Compared to the worst week of recent flu seasons, that COVID hospitalization rate is 77% as bad, because the worst flu week had 5.3 hospitalizations per KPY:
A reasonable benchmark for usual infection hospitalization rates would be about half of that peak:
2-to-3 hospitalizations per 1,000 person-years (per KPY)
The Moderna Phase 3 trial did not exceed that usual hospitalization rate. If, using Phase 3 trial baseline hospitalization rates, COVID is no worse than severe seasonal flu (peak week: 102 weekly new hospital admissions per million), then how did hospitalization rates get so high?:
The baseline COVID hospitalization rate from the Phase 3 trial would map to an average weekly new hospitalization rate per million of about 50, yet some weeks hit 700 above — 14 times higher than the natural propensity for COVID to create hospitalization.
One theory is that the COVID shot led to the hospitalizations in the first two weeks post-dose, rather than the original disease causing the hospitalizations.
First Two Weeks after a Dose
As expected from the drop in lymphocyte counts post-jab, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) found increased incidence of infection in the two weeks following a dose (from Week 0 to Week 2):
Scottish Single-Dosers (hospitalizations)
Single-dosed Scots overall (orange) did marginally (“non-significantly”) worse than placebo group (green) from Week 1 to Week 2 regarding the rate of hospitalization for COVID:
But the age distribution of those taking that first dose of the Pfizer shot didn’t match that of the unvaccinated:
And when you just look at working-age Scots from 18-64 — because the Phase 1 trial above had predicted (by lymphocyte drops) that they’ll be harmed the most — the increased hospitalization rate (in the group who took shots) is statistically-significant:
Just to the right of the added orange box is the confidence interval for relative risk of hospitalization. While it crosses the value of 1.0, indicating no statistical significance, I reanalyzed it using the Gamma method preferred by the CDC, and the COVID shots led to significantly more COVID hospitalizations:
The 95% lower bound on the hospitalization rate of those getting COVID shots (cell F9) was higher than the 95% upper bound on the hospitalization rate of placebo (cell G6). The formula for the preferred CDC method (Gamma method) shows at very top.
The indication is that elder hospitalization rates are roughly similar, but COVID shots significantly increase COVID hospitalization in the young.
Variants of Concern (symptomatics)
Looking at efficacy against Alpha and Delta variants, COVID shots were temporally-associated with increased risk for symptomatic infection. This study included 19,109 symptomatic cases:
Of those 19,109 symptomatic infections, over 90% are presented in this table, using just 4 numbers from it:
But the very next table shows what looks like a discrepancy — the “unvaccinated” may have merely been those who had recent jabs — leaving open the plausibility of the purple notes added:
If 93% of all symptomatic COVID infections are in those who took a shot, then you could stop the pandemic merely by stopping the shots.
References will be included in a follow-up post due to length.