Of course, we'd have to take incubation time into account regarding those 4 days of being immuno-compromised:
If infected on Day 4 post-dose, and the disease has a 5-day incubation time, then first symptoms (historically taken to be the start of an infection) can show up on Day 9 post-dose.
Those charts are good, but one thing not mentioned yet is that the time-period of those charts coincides with a time when cases mostly got "discovered" by PCR rather than by symptoms, and there is (virtually) no incubation time for testing positive on PCR -- as long as you ramp-up the cycle threshold high enough.
Fig S8 of that Nature article shows a counter-intuitive result:
closing schools increased the COVID spread among kids.
So many things are epidemiologically counter-intuitive during COVID that you cannot help but wonder what fraction of all that went on was organic, and what part of it was manufactured by shadowy figures operating behind the scenes.
Good point on the Delta wave being more explicitly symptomatic than the others. I stand corrected. However, test policy was set up to boost case numbers artificially if possible, and if you run a PCR test at 40-50 cycles, ...
:-)
I do realize that the threshold you set is the number of amplifications and that, in practice, a laboratory would intentionally run more or higher than the threshold value rather than stop at the threshold -- allowing you to determine who "counts" as being positive.
However, given the median Delta Ct was lower than Omicron BA.1, a good argument can still be made that PCR test positivity would skyrocket during Delta, even if no symptoms every occurred.
Very good work on your part, Fabian.
Of course, we'd have to take incubation time into account regarding those 4 days of being immuno-compromised:
If infected on Day 4 post-dose, and the disease has a 5-day incubation time, then first symptoms (historically taken to be the start of an infection) can show up on Day 9 post-dose.
Those charts are good, but one thing not mentioned yet is that the time-period of those charts coincides with a time when cases mostly got "discovered" by PCR rather than by symptoms, and there is (virtually) no incubation time for testing positive on PCR -- as long as you ramp-up the cycle threshold high enough.
Fig S8 of that Nature article shows a counter-intuitive result:
closing schools increased the COVID spread among kids.
So many things are epidemiologically counter-intuitive during COVID that you cannot help but wonder what fraction of all that went on was organic, and what part of it was manufactured by shadowy figures operating behind the scenes.
Good point on the Delta wave being more explicitly symptomatic than the others. I stand corrected. However, test policy was set up to boost case numbers artificially if possible, and if you run a PCR test at 40-50 cycles, ...
:-)
I do realize that the threshold you set is the number of amplifications and that, in practice, a laboratory would intentionally run more or higher than the threshold value rather than stop at the threshold -- allowing you to determine who "counts" as being positive.
However, given the median Delta Ct was lower than Omicron BA.1, a good argument can still be made that PCR test positivity would skyrocket during Delta, even if no symptoms every occurred.