In this prior installment, Moderna COVID shots were compared to one of the more dangerous general vaccines (diptheria-tetanus-pertussis) and it was discovered that the reporting rate for serious adverse events — standardized to each million doses — was 10-fold higher for Moderna, a result that was 82 standard deviations above usual.
Officials sometimes argue that you can’t compare VAERS reporting rates across time, because adverse effects are not the only thing varying across time, and people may — all-of-a-sudden — start reporting more frequently than they ever had before. The range of capture rates of underlying adverse events runs from 2% to 20%.
That’s a 10-fold difference.
When 2% of background events get captured by passive surveillance like VAERS, the under-reporting rate is 98%. But in those rare instances where a full 20% of background events get captured, then the under-reporting rate is only 80%:
Notice how the median of 43 numerical estimates for under-reporting rates was 94% — indicating 6% capture of the underlying events which occur in the background. But even applying the 10-fold increase in ‘tendency-to-report’ — it still doesn’t explain
Moderna’s reporting rate for deaths.
By March 2023, there were 251.85 million Moderna doses, but over 8,000 death reports:
The reporting rate for deaths was 32.6 death reports per million doses. But for typical vaccines, you expect 1.1 death reports per million doses, with a 99% upper bound on the standard deviation of 0.42 death reports per million doses.
Not only is Moderna’s death reporting rate 29 times higher — impossible to sweep under the rug by arguing higher ‘tendency-to-report’ (which only varies 10-fold) — but when put in terms of “standard deviations of difference” it comes out to 76 standard deviations above usual. But that makes the Moderna numbers highly significant:
The formula for the 99% upper bound of the standard deviation of death reports per million doses — referring to the value of 0.416 in column S — shows up at top. Using the expected rate of 1.13 per million doses, the ultra-conservative Chebychev test was used to verify statistical significance of the elevated rate of death reports for Moderna.
With 28.8 times more death reports than expected, it takes the wind out of the sails of those who try to pawn it off to a mere increase in ‘tendency-to-report.’ What we are looking at is a real increase in death compared to what is typical, using one of the most conservative (most valid/acceptable) statistical tests which exist.