WHO Effectiveness Standards

Post #539

In a previous report, vitamin D was found to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) standard for an effective intervention for COVID, but early evidence indicated that the monovalent booster, after June 2022, failed.

This post extends out to the bivalent booster, to see if it fails to meet the minimum acceptable standards. Here are the minimum standards put out by WHO:

• severe disease: central effectiveness estimate at least 70%, lower bound at least 30%

• non-severe disease: central estimate at least 50%, lower bound at least 30%

Notice that the minimum acceptable lower bound is always 30% effectiveness but that, with severe disease — such as would be the case if a patient required invasive mechanical ventilation — the central estimate should be at least 70%.

But for those under age 65, the central estimate of effectiveness against invasive mechanic ventilation is only 57% — failing to meet the minimum acceptable standard (green marks added):

That lack of minimum acceptable effectiveness was found over a year of data. But just looking at hospitalizations in the “flu season” of 2022/2023, and using the lower bound of 30% effectiveness, the bivalent booster began failing to meet the standard after 59 days in those under age 65:

At bottom, you can even see it failing in those over age 64 after Day 119. But look what happens in those over age 64 when you extend the data collection out for just one more month:

The absolute VE begins failing after 59 days, just like in those younger than age 65.

Evidence suggests that booster shots, whether monovalent or bivalent, fail to meet the minimum acceptable standards for effectiveness by Day 60 post-injection.

Reference

[CDC presentation on booster shot VE] — COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness updates. 19 April 2023. Ruth Link-Gelles, PhD, MPH. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2023-04-19/05-COVID-Link-Gelles-508.pdf