Young Adult Death Rates in England (2021-2022)
Not explainable by postulating COVID as the cause
Back in this Substack, I made the case that the minimum death rate to expect from those in England who are below age 40 is 40 yearly deaths per 100,000 persons. Here is a prolonged time-window of the month-specific death rates of the unjabbed 18-39 years olds:
The blue line is the line of expectation, resulting from seasonally-adjusting the yearly average of 40 deaths per 100,000 — and using 7 recents years of death to obtain the seasonality index.
The orange and gray error bars result from applying CDC’s 95% conversion factors when you have observed 99 events (deaths) in a given time-window (month/year). Because more than 99 monthly deaths occur in this age group, those error bars are conservative.
But even starting at the 95% upper limit, you cannot get to the recorded death rates for each of the final 6 months of 2021 by postulating that “COVID killed them.” This is because the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID for this age group is only 11 deaths per 100,000 infections.
Here is a noted version of the graph showing what COVID could have possibly caused, if it had an uncanny attack rate of 90% each month:
Evidence suggests that it is not possible for COVID to have been the cause of the high death rates seen in young adults in England in the last half of 2021.
Using the median estimate of age-specific IFR from PMC9613797, it is not even possible that COVID could explain even half of the excess death seen then. COVID itself was not capable of killing off young adults like this.
The most likely explanation of the excess death is the experimental COVID jab. The fact that these death rates were reported for those unjabbed brings up the possibility of widespread misclassification of deaths by UK health authorities.
Reference
[age-specific deaths in England] — ONS. Deaths by vaccination status, England. Table 2, columns F (death counts) and G (person-years). https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland
[median COVID IFR for those from age 30-39 is 0.011%] — Pezzullo AM, Axfors C, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG, Apostolatos A, Ioannidis JPA. Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population. Environ Res. 2023 Jan 1;216(Pt 3):114655. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655. Epub 2022 Oct 28. PMID: 36341800; PMCID: PMC9613797. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9613797/