Probability

5 Standard Deviations is Always Unusual

Mar 27 •

A million COVID deaths (and 3 million averted)?

Mar 9 •

Recent Steve Kirsch Debate

Feb 7 •

1 in 82 Trillion ...

Feb 5 •

Public Figure Safety Signal (PFSS)

Feb 1 •

Unbelievable Things

Jan 30 •

Probability as Propensity

Dec 23, 2023 •

Is Probability a Thing?

Dec 22, 2023 •

Mice are lighter than elephants

(and Achilles catches the Tortoise)

May 31, 2023 •

The Probability that Officials are Innocent

Analysis by First Principles Approach

Apr 9, 2023 •

One 100-million-round Computer IFR Simulation to Rule them All

Introducing the 99.8% Bayesian Credible Interval

Dec 16, 2022 •

Light-hearted Post

Evidence I'm not a "Debbie Downer"

Aug 14, 2022 •

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